A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."